Special SEAS Colloquium in Climate Science (SCiCS)
Monday,
October 21, 2019
1:00 PM - 2:00 PM
On Campus
Room/Area: TBA
Room/Area: TBA
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TwitterDr. Sebastian Milinski
Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie
Title: "Internal variability in a changing climate — a large ensemble perspective on tropical Atlantic rainfall"
Abstract: A widely used assumption in climate science is that internal variability does not change over time, but does this assumption hold in a warming world? In this presentation I will introduce a new analysis framework to detect changes in internal variability using an initial-condition large ensemble. I will then apply this framework to investigate past and future rainfall changes over the tropical Atlantic and Sahel regions and show that rainfall variability does change in response to global warming, leading to changes in the magnitude of anomalous and extreme rainfall events.
Finally, I will demonstrate how initial-condition large ensembles offer new possibilites for a robust comparison of simulated and observed internal variability and forced trends.
Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie
Title: "Internal variability in a changing climate — a large ensemble perspective on tropical Atlantic rainfall"
Abstract: A widely used assumption in climate science is that internal variability does not change over time, but does this assumption hold in a warming world? In this presentation I will introduce a new analysis framework to detect changes in internal variability using an initial-condition large ensemble. I will then apply this framework to investigate past and future rainfall changes over the tropical Atlantic and Sahel regions and show that rainfall variability does change in response to global warming, leading to changes in the magnitude of anomalous and extreme rainfall events.
Finally, I will demonstrate how initial-condition large ensembles offer new possibilites for a robust comparison of simulated and observed internal variability and forced trends.
Hosts: Lorenzo Polvani and Clara Orbe
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Please note: this seminar will take place the NASA/GISS Institute, located at 2880 Broadway (at the corner of Broadway and 112th Street). Due to security regulations, presentations on the GISS premises are not open to the general public. If you are interested in attending this seminar, please send a message to [email protected] by Thursday, Oct. 17.
___________________
Please note: this seminar will take place the NASA/GISS Institute, located at 2880 Broadway (at the corner of Broadway and 112th Street). Due to security regulations, presentations on the GISS premises are not open to the general public. If you are interested in attending this seminar, please send a message to [email protected] by Thursday, Oct. 17.
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