Mitchell Bushuk
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory at Princeton University


Title: "Arctic Sea Ice Predictability in a Changing Cryosphere"


Abstract: Forty years of satellite observations have documented a striking decline in the areal extent of Arctic sea ice. The loss of sea ice has impacts on the climate system, human populations, ecosystems, and natural environments across a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. These changes have motivated significant research interest in the predictability and prediction of Arctic sea ice on seasonal-to-interannual timescales.

In this talk, I will address three related questions: (1) What is the inherent predictability of Arctic sea ice? (2) What physical mechanisms underlie this predictability? and (3) How can this knowledge be leveraged to improve operational sea ice predictions? I will present findings on the relative roles of the ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere in controlling sea ice predictability. I will also present evidence for an Arctic spring predictability barrier, which may impose a sharp limit on our ability to make skillful predictions of the summer sea ice minimum.

Bio: Dr. Bushuk is a research scientist at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GDFL) at Princeton University working on sea ice predictability and prediction and polar oceanography. Prior to this, he was a Postdoctoral Research Associate at GFDL and the AOS Program at Princeton University working with Michael Winton, Rym Msadek, and Gabriel Vecchi. He earned his PhD from the Center for Atmosphere Ocean Science (CAOS) at NYU’s Courant Institute of Mathematical Science in 2015 where he was advised by Dimitris Giannakis. He also worked with Andrew Majda and David Holland.